The market has already downgraded South Africa to junk

News24
12 Aug 2019, 22:14 GMT+10

Moody hasn't said it, but investors already think it: South Africa's credit is junk.

The company, which rates South Africa's debt Baa3, the lowest investment level, is due to review its assessment in November. Given Eskom's financial woes and its implications for government debt, the market is pricing in a downgrade.

The premium investors demand to hold South Africa's dollar bonds rather than US Treasuries is almost twice as much as the average for investment-rated emerging markets. It's also wider than the spread for Brazil, which has a non-investment grade rating from Moody's, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. The risk premium has climbed since mid-July, when the government announced it would increase borrowing to support Eskom.

South Africa isn't benefiting from the global hunt for yield. While average local-currency yields for emerging markets have been falling, South Africa's have been rising. The premium of South African yields over developing-nation peers is now at the highest since February. That suggests investors are positioning for fiscal deterioration, and a credit downgrade.

READ | Moody's: SA's Eskom bail out plan credit negative

The cost of insuring South Africa's debt against default is much higher than that of Russia, which has a similar Baa3 rating with Moody's. It's also higher than Brazil, rated two levels lower.

Moody's has been "too kind," said Win Thin, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co, who predicts South Africa's credit rating may fall three levels into junk.

Watch latest videos

News RELEASES

Publish news of your business, community or sports group, personnel appointments, major event and more by submitting a news release to Calgary Monitor.

More Information

2 ℃

Mostly Cloudy in Calgary

North America

Section

Trump trial arguments get airing on Sunday talk shows

WASHINGTON - Key players in the impeachment trial of U.S. President Donald Trump and his defense argued sharply Sunday whether ...

Pakistan: US 'Applauded' Steps Against Terror Financing

ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN - Pakistan hosted high-level talks with the United States on Monday to review steps Islamabad has taken to ...

Refugee stories reveal anxieties about the Canada-U.S. border

For the past two years, Roxham Road - a dead-end street between Champlain, N.Y., and Hemmingford, Que., - has received ...

ILO: Labor Inequality Threatens Social Cohesion

GENEVA, SWITZERLAND - The International Labor Organization warns that rising unemployment and inequality are preventing people from working their way ...

Eight Countries Back European-Led Naval Mission In Strait Of Hormuz

Eight European Union member states have given their support for a European-led maritime surveillance mission in the Strait of Hormuz, ...

Toronto FC's Bradley to undergo ankle surgery

Toronto FC captain Michael Bradley is slated to undergo ankle surgery on Tuesday and will miss approximately four months, general ...

Canada

Section