Canada's Liberal Party will announce Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's successor Sunday as both party chief and head of the country's government during a trade war with the United States that could cripple the Canadian economy.

The next prime minister will have to negotiate with U.S. President Donald Trump as he threatens additional tariffs on Canada and may soon face the opposition Conservatives in a general election.

Trudeau announced in January that he would step down after more than nine years in power as his approval rating plummeted, forcing the ruling Liberal Party to run a quick contest to replace him.

"Is it ideal in a circumstance of bilateral crisis for us? I suppose not," said Drew Fagan, a professor at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. "But on the other hand, the process is playing out domestically as it should."

Former central banker Mark Carney is the front-runner, with the most endorsements from party members and the most money raised among the four Liberal candidates. Ahead of an event to announce the winner, Liberal Party members were already distributing Carney placards.

Former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland has touted her experience negotiating with Trump during his first term but has struggled to differentiate herself from Trudeau after being one of his most loyal supporters for years.

In a surprise move, she left his government in December after Trudeau tried to replace her, and she criticized his government's spending policies.

Around 400,000 Liberal Party members were eligible to vote, and the results will be calculated in a ranked ballot of voters in each of the 343 parliamentary constituencies, also known as ridings. As of 12 p.m. local time (1600 GMT), with three hours of voting left, 150,000 members had voted, the party said.

The party is due to announce the first round of results at about 6:30 p.m. (2230 GMT).

A victory for Carney, 59, would be the first time an outsider with no real political background has become Canadian prime minister.

Carney has said his experience as the first person to serve as the governor of two central banks — Canada and England — meant he was the best candidate to deal with Trump.

During the campaign, Carney said he supported dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against the United States and a coordinated strategy to boost investment. He has repeatedly complained that Canada's growth under Trudeau was not good enough.

The prospect of a fresh start for the Liberal Party under Carney, combined with Trump's tariffs and his repeated taunts to annex Canada as the 51st U.S. state, led to a remarkable revival of Liberal fortunes.

'Rally-around-the-flag moment'

At the start of 2025, the party trailed by 20 or more points but is now statistically tied with the official opposition Conservatives in several polls.

At a protest outside Canada's Parliament building in Ottawa on Sunday, dozens of Canadians held up signs protesting Trump with no reference to domestic politics.

"There is a rallying-around-the-flag moment that we would never have predicted a year ago," said University of British Columbia politics professor Richard Johnston. "I think it's probably true as we speak that the Liberals have been saved from oblivion."

Liberals sought to compare Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to Trump in a recent advertisement. Poilievre in turn ramped up attacks on Carney on Sunday.

The Liberals "are going to pull a sneaky trick tonight," Poilievre said at a campaign rally. "They're going to try to get elected for a fourth term by replacing Justin Trudeau with his economic adviser, Mark Carney. ... Donald Trump will have a big smile on his face."

Carney has played down any role in advising Trudeau, noting his many global obligations left him with little time. Carney resigned all commercial posts after he launched his leadership bid in January.

Regardless of who wins, the next prime minister has important decisions to make right away. An election must be called no later than October 20.

The Globe and Mail newspaper reported Saturday that Carney would call an election before Parliament is due to reconvene at the end of the month, meaning voting could take place either April 28 or May 5. Carney's campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Polls indicate that neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives would be able to form a majority government.

Carney could legally serve as prime minister without a seat in the House of Commons but tradition dictates he should seek to win one as soon as possible.

In 1984, John Turner was not a legislator when he became prime minister after winning a Liberal leadership race.

Reuters

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