WINNIPEG, Manitoba: Farmers in the U.S. and Canada are bracing for soaring fertilizer prices as trade tensions escalate between the two nations.

With spring planting just weeks away, growers already struggling with low grain prices now face another financial burden due to new tariffs imposed by the U.S. government.

After months of threats, President Donald Trump enacted 25 percent tariffs on most Canadian imports, including fertilizers, before announcing a temporary reprieve on some goods. Canada responded by delaying its own retaliatory tariffs until April 2.

Potash, a crucial fertilizer for U.S. farmers, primarily comes from Canada, while Canadian farmers rely on phosphate sourced from Florida. Saskatchewan farmer Scott Hepworth, who has been paying high prices for U.S. phosphate, fears further spikes. "When will this end? How bad will this get?" he asked at the Canadian Crops Convention.

Fertilizer is among the most significant costs for farmers. In 2024, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that 22 percent of total corn production expenses came from fertilizers. Since early January, the price of potash has climbed from US$303 to $348 per short ton, with fears of tariffs driving the increase.

"Potash has seen price strength in all the confusion and fear of the tariffs," said fertilizer analyst Josh Linville of StoneX.

Phosphate prices have also surged due to hurricane-related damage to Florida's production facilities. Additional Canadian tariffs could further increase the cost of phosphate imports.

The U.S. imports 90 percent of its potash, with 80 percent coming from Canada, making it nearly impossible to replace with domestic production. A University of Illinois and Ohio State University analysis warned that full pass-through of the 25 percent tariff could increase prices by over $100 per ton.

While other potash suppliers include Russia and Belarus, exports from these countries remain restricted due to sanctions and port bans following the war in Ukraine. Canada's phosphate imports from the U.S. also lack viable alternatives, with Morocco being a distant and challenging source.

Fertilizer companies rushed to ship supplies to U.S. wholesalers before tariffs took effect, ensuring sufficient stock for early planting. However, farmers will still face higher prices at the retail level.

"The fertilizer industry has known this is coming since November, so they've been prepared, and now they're just bracing to see how this plays out," said analyst Mark Milam of ICIS.

Ken Seitz, CEO of Nutrien, warned U.S. farmers to expect fertilizer prices to rise as much as 25 percent. "We believe that the cost of tariffs will be passed on to the U.S. farmer," he stated at the BMO Global Metals, Mining, and Critical Minerals Conference.