Earlier this year, Donald Trump's administration in the United States reimposed tariffs on Canadian items, including agricultural products, citing supposed national security concerns. Agricultural products have little to do with defence, and the move sent shockwaves through Canada's farming community.

We are members of the Common Ground Network, a national initiative of about 100 scholars promoting collaboration for sustainable agriculture and food systems in Canada.

The Common Ground Network is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs and trade tensions on Canadian communities and the transition to a net-zero economy across all regions of Canada.

The consequences for Canadian and American agriculture run deep - and could prove long-lasting. According to RealAgristudies's survey of 660 Canadian farmers, 59 per cent expected a negative impact on their business, rising to 88 per cent in the livestock sector.

Trump's tariffs have sharply reduced Canada's agricultural exports to the U.S., with beef, pork and canola hit hardest. U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows an eight to five per cent drop in beef and pork exports in early 2025 compared to 2024.

Fed cattle prices plummeted 22.6 per cent, with estimated revenue losses of C$4.02 billion. Canola exports are also expected to decline significantly.

If current tariffs persist, Canada is at risk not just of short-term disruption but long-term structural damage to its agri-food sector. Rising input costs, shrinking revenues and market volatility are squeezing farmers and weakening overall competitiveness. Some Canadian producers are already struggling with oversupply due to market disruption.

The tariffs could also threaten the economic sovereignty and food access of Indigenous farmers who rely on cross-border trade, and remote communities that depend on imported goods for food supply. If prolonged, these trade shocks could cut Canada's GDP by three per cent, spark a recession and fuel lasting price volatility.

Ironically, Trump's protectionism is also hurting American farmers. Canada, which supplies 20 per cent of agri-food imports to the U.S., has imposed retaliatory tariffs on goods like cheese and apples, prompting Canadian buyers to shift to other suppliers. That could result in long-term market share loss for U.S. producers.

Integrated supply chains are strained, with American processors now facing higher costs for Canadian products like canola oil, beef and pork. Combined with domestic issues like water restrictions and labour shortages, U.S. agriculture is under mounting pressure on various fronts.

Canada and the U.S. have built one of the world's most integrated agri-food systems. In 2023, bilateral trade in the sector reached US$72.6 billion.

This interdependence matters: a hamburger might include Canadian beef raised in the U.S., processed in Ontario and served on a Canadian wheat bun. But tariffs and mistrust now threaten this co-operation. Once lost, these market positions may be hard to recover, even after tariffs are lifted, as rebuilding supply chains and cross-border trust will be slow.

Trade tensions are affecting food security and grocery baskets in multiple ways. Higher costs are passed on to consumers, creating lasting price increases - especially for goods with few substitutes, like coffee.

The Consumer Price Index shows that prices of food purchased from stores increased 3.9 per cent between January 2025 and April 2025, fuelled by tariffs. Infant formula increased by six per cent, coffee by about 10 per cent and some beef cuts by about 13 per cent.

Read more: Trump tariffs have sparked a 'Buy Canadian' surge, but keeping the trend alive faces hurdles

Shortages from rising costs and reduced U.S. demand limit choices and drive prices up - especially hurting low-income households. These tariffs fuel food inflation and reduce access to essentials.

Tariffs are also shifting behaviour: Food Processing Skills Canada found that 67 per cent of Canadians are buying more local products, 76 per cent are avoiding U.S. goods and 43 per cent have changed their grocery habits significantly. These trends were echoed in Angus Reid's February 2025 study.

The tariffs will probably disrupt Canada's ability to meet its net-zero emissions targets by 2050. Food processors and farmers in Canada relying on U.S. machinery and clean-tech components now face higher costs, slowing the adoption of low-emission technologies and sustainable agricultural practices.

The tariffs are likely to undermine efforts to build a resilient, adaptive food system in Canada capable of withstanding climate-related disruptions. Dealing with the tariffs along with the need to reconfigure supply chains will likely increase Canada's carbon footprint, whether that's due to the increased transport emissions of distant markets or delayed or cancelled investments in carbon-reducing technologies.

These trade disruptions also risk diverting political attention away from long-term sustainability goals. The current political focus may prioritize short-term economic stabilization, potentially stalling the momentum needed for a transformative food system change in Canada.

Read more: Canadian Food Policy Advisory Council: A collaborative approach to strengthening food systems

Canada can diversify exports through its 15 trade deals, including the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, known as CETA, and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Canada's 15 trade agreements provide access to 51 countries, representing 66 per cent of global GDP, which is the total value of all goods and services produced in the world during a specific time period.

Furthermore, Canada can pursue new trade agreements and partnerships in emerging markets and invest more to further help the agri-food sector expand globally.

Canada can challenge unfair trade practices through the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement's state-to-state dispute panels and the binational panel review mechanism to challenge U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.

Canada can also leverage trade alliances like the Ottawa Group - a 14-member coalition that works on addressing multilateral trade challenges - to voice its concerns on the global stage.

Investing in agricultural innovation can also boost productivity, reduce emissions, enhance global competitiveness and build resilience against tariff shocks.

Improvements to transportation networks, storage and processing facilities, and broadband connectivity are also critical for reducing supply chain bottlenecks and enabling rural producers to access broader markets.

Trump has repeatedly threatened Canada's supply management system, which controls the dairy, egg and poultry industries. Supply management has been a reliable system for Canadian farmers and consumers. Easing interprovincial trade and supporting local food systems to reduce the unnecessary exports of dairy products and cold-climate fruits, beef and seafood could result in greater national self-reliance.

In response to American tariffs, there has been a shift in consumer sentiment. This presents an opportunity to encourage consumers to support local producers, reduce dependence on imports and build national economic resilience.

Canada must rethink its trade and agricultural frameworks for the decades ahead.

The future of Canada's farming sector - and by extension its food security, rural communities and economic sovereignty - will depend on its ability to turn today's crisis into tomorrow's opportunity.